21 May 2021

A Bottom

The STI reached a bottom last Friday and is labelled as the end of Wave 4 (red). This week it appears to have formed Subwave i (red) and is now forming Subwave ii (red), which make up the beginning of Wave 5 (red). However we cannot be sure of this yet. We need to see the STI climb up above the top of Wave 3 (red), as shown by the blue horizontal line, to have high confidence that Wave 5 is beginning.

There is some probability that Wave 4 (red) has not completed, but will instead drag on sideways to form a triangle. The surge in Covid-19 cases in many countries is causing uncertainty and caution in investors. Thus next week, the STI could rise some more and then plunge down again. We have to be patient.

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